According to EnergyTrend, the new regulations implemented by China's public utilities and distributed solar energy power plants will result in demand dropping to 29-35 GW. The projected mid-year installed capacity in 2018 will be 31.6 GW, a decrease of 40%.
Therefore, the global demand for solar energy will decline year-on-year, which is the first time this happens.
EnergyTrend predicts that global solar energy demand will drop by 5%-8% to 92-95GW by 2018. According to the data of the market research company, before 2019, the solar industry capacity is expected to not exceed 100GW. In 2019, more new markets will emerge.
EnergyTrend said that this situation is expected to have an impact on the industry's supply chain this year, especially when it puts considerable pressure on the average selling price. This is not surprising. EnergyTrend said that the status quo has started to put pressure on average selling prices.
However, due to the needs of the Chinese leader plan and poverty alleviation projects, it is expected that demand will increase in the fourth quarter of 2018, and will maintain a certain degree of stability before the decline in the average sales price in the first quarter of 2019.
The decline in the average sales price transmitted through the supply chain will affect the prices of PV modules, and in particular will weaken the impact of the US anti-dumping duties imposed through the 201 case. In 2019, tariffs will fall by 5% to 25%, so the tariff effect is highly likely to weaken further.